By the time you read this, the Conclave of Cardinals to select a successor to John Paul II will have begun; it may even have finished, and we will have a new Pope. At the moment, speculation is rife as to whom it may be: Josef Cardinal Ratzinger, in the last Pontificate guardian of orthodoxy, to whom running the Conclave falls as Dean of the Cardinals?; Cardinal Arinze, head of the Congregation for the Liturgy and a Nigerian?; Cardinal Scola, Patriarch of Venice?; or one of the other handful of “most likely” Cardinals, whom the Italians dub Papabile? This writer cannot hazard a guess, and can only repeat a Roman proverb --- “many a Cardinal enters Conclave a Pope, and leaves a Cardinal!” There is really no way of knowing until it happens.

You may already know the answer when these sentences hit your eyes, in which case speculation will have begun regarding the new Pope and what policies he will pursue. Again, we shall just have to wait and see. There are a few indicators, but they are not that helpful. One is the name that he selects. Should he choose to be called “John Paul III,” he will attempt, in all likelihood to follow the course set by the late Pontiff --- but that really tells us little, since his policies often appeared to be contradictory. Should the names Pius XIII or John XXIV appear, it will be obvious that the new man considers himself “conservative” or “liberal,” although in the latter case that can be rather ambiguous. Should the Successor of St. Peter reach back for one of the older names --- Leo, Urban, Gregory, Innocent, Benedict, or whatever --- there can be no telling. Of course, given the course of the Papacy over the past several decades, the Pope may dispense with the tradition entirely, and just use his own name. That would be very revealing --- or not.

Another indicator shall be whether or not he decides to revive the traditional coronation, or settles for the sort of inauguration employed by the two John Pauls --- the second of whom did indicate, however, that the Crowning with the Tiara might well return one day.
What is easier to see are the challenges facing the new Pontiff. One is the legacy left by the man we have just buried so spectacularly. What amazes the informed observer is just how breathtakingly wrong the common opinion of that legacy on the part of major media in North America is. Those worthies see John Paul II as a Pope who centralized power in Rome and squelched dissent, causing many pious seekers after priestesses, birth control, gay marriage, abortion, divorce, married priests, euthanasia, and so on untold pain. Oh, if only he had loosened up!

The reality is in fact almost the opposite, and far more complex. While it is certainly true that John Paul II strongly proclaimed traditional teaching in the areas that so upset the chattering classes, there is rather more to the story. On the one hand, he certainly raised the international face of the Papacy and the Church, bringing it to 120 countries and maintaining diplomatic relations with 174. The influence of the Holy See in international affairs has probably not been so great since the end of World War II, and nothing showed forth that influence so much as his funeral. There too one saw the tremendous pan-Catholic solidarity he had engendered, passing over national and ritual boundaries.

But in his last autobiographical book, he himself wondered if he had not allowed the bishops too free a rein, and any informed Catholic who has lived under them will heartily agree. Under John Paul II’s watch bishops defied Roman regulations openly, and in many dioceses in Western Europe, North America, and Australasia he had no more affect on the running of things (and what was vended by the bishops therein and their theologians as Catholic teaching) than he did over Anglican or Lutheran bishops. It is unlikely that the Holy See has had as little say in the running of local churches than at any time since the French Revolution.

So his successor will, on the one hand, have to maintain the strengths of his pontificate, while at the same time --- if he is to be successful --- reassert his authority over his brother bishops. The misrule by so many bishops of their diocese has led not only to the pedophile and other scandals, it has resulted in widespread disbelief in the dogmas of the Faith on the part of many of the (particularly higher) clergy, and corresponding ignorance of them on the part of the laity. If the Cardinal elected does not believe that this situation is ideal (and he might, after all --- history has shown us a number of such Popes) than he will have to confront it. Fortunately, many of the younger clergy are orthodox; clerical heresy is really old hat, although many of its practitioners still think of it as new and exciting; of course, some people still see the Beatles as revolutionary.

Nevertheless, that is only the first hurdle. Another is the absolute hatred of Christ and His Church on the part of so many in the higher reaches of government, media, and industry in the “developed” world. The cabinets of such formerly Catholic areas as Ireland, Spain, Belgium, and Quebec are committed to “secularization,” by which, in reality, they mean the rooting out of Catholic beliefs and symbols from public life. In all the others, the view of reality that dominates the elites is more or less diametrically opposed to that of the Church --- a situation abetted by the inaction or even assistance of the sort of prelates just referred to. Hence the views of John Paul II by the media cited earlier. The new Pope must face this as well, and doubtless shall find inspiration, should he wish it, in the figure of Charles I of Austria-Hungary, beatified by the Pope last October. As John Paul II told us, in the ill-fortuned Emperor we see a proper example for all in public life.

In any case, the West is dying. Those who oppose the Church’s teachings simply do not reproduce, nor do their subjects. If Europe and the West do not regain their Faith, they will disappear in time. It is in Latin America, Africa, and Asia that the future of the Church and the World lies, if demographics mean anything. But there too, the new Pope faces many challenges. The rise of radical Islam, and proselytization by U.S.-funded Evangelical Protestants in Latin America, are problems that also must be dealt with. To do so, Catholics have to regain the missionary fervor that inspired the Apostles and the rest of the first Catholics, and which has broken out anew at various times in our history. That John Paul II saw the need for this can be gleaned from his encouragement of the “new evangelization” and so many new and revived religious orders and lay movements. But it really is essential that belief in the necessity of the Sacraments and the doctrines of the Church for salvation be reinstilled in Catholics if they are to regain the sense of urgency necessary to back these advances fully.

Of course, reunion with the East and bringing to the Church right-minded Anglicans and Protestants is another issue, akin to the last. For that matter, something must be done regarding the organized evangelization of the Muslims. Obviously, all of these things also require good will on the part of those being reached out to, and that is something no one can guarantee, not even a Pope. But it is something to be devoutly prayed for and witnessed to.

In any case, whether or not the new Pontiff takes an aggressive stand toward all of these challenges, or prefers to wait and do what appears to be nothing, all Catholics everywhere will wish him the best in his new position, as will innumerable Heads of State. Some few of the latter may even mean it. But this writer will here and now take the opportunity to wish him long life and victory, as the old acclamations of the Roman people at Papal visits once proclaimed.